This estimate and its report are the Himalayan country\u2019s contribution to the Population Assessment of the World\u2019s Snow Leopards (PAWS), an initiative launched under the Global Snow Leopard and Ecosystem Protection Program (GSLEP) in 2019 to support the 12 range countries to produce a robust estimate of the cat\u2019s population status.<\/p>\n
The result, based on data on snow leopard distribution and population density collected between 2015 and 2024, also has global implications. \u201cAlthough Nepal has the second smallest snow leopard habitat of only around 2% of the global land area considered suitable for snow leopards, it is home to nearly 10%, the fourth largest population,\u201d said Ghana Shyam Gurung, Nepal representative of WWF.<\/p>\n
Unlike tigers (Panthera tigris), the other big cat found in the country that are regularly monitored and counted using extensive camera traps, snow leopards roam vast high-altitude rugged landscapes crisscrossing political boundaries. These challenges mean that estimates must be made using the best available data and science.<\/p>\n In the context of Nepal, this has been the approach since the pioneering telemetry work by researcher Rodney Jackson and his team in the late 1980s and early \u201990s. They first estimated the snow leopard population in the country to be around 150\u2013300 in 1979 and later revised the number up to 350\u2013500 individuals based on a computerized habitat suitability model.<\/p>\n In 2009, researchers from WWF and DNPWC came up with a new estimate of 301\u2013400 based on a model describing the relationship between sign (scrape marks) encounter rates, snow leopard numbers assessed through genetic analysis, and habitat suitability assessment in the Nepal Himalayas.<\/p>\n The figure was also acknowledged by the government\u2019s inaugural Snow Leopard Action Plan (2005-15), revised in 2012. A 2013 estimate by GSLEP, however, suggested the number to be around 300\u2013500. But as consolidated nation-wide assessment based on methods recognized by GSLEP was yet to be conducted, various studies indicated that the number could have been overestimated.<\/p>\n \u201cInstead of a single large survey, we had to synthesize findings from camera traps, genetic analysis and habitat models, each done in different regions and years,\u201d said Kamal Thapa, a snow leopard researcher on the government-appointed committee.<\/p>\n This included studies in the eastern, central and western habitats of the vulnerable species in Nepal ranging from Humla in the west, the Annapurnas in the centre and Kanchenjunga in the east. They were conducted by individual researchers and officials from the government, the National Trust for Nature Conservation (NTNC), WWF, Thirdpole Conservancy, The Himalayan Wolves Project, Tribhuvan University, Nepal Engineering College and ZSL.<\/p>\n \u201cAggregating these findings wasn\u2019t easy,\u201d said Thapa. \u201cWe had to find ways to make camera-trap data comparable with DNA-based scat analysis. That\u2019s where the PAWS guidelines came in.\u201d<\/p>\n The PAWS framework demands statistically robust tools like spatial capture-recapture models and recommends surveys covering at least 500 km2 (193 mi2). While a handful of Nepal\u2019s snow leopard habitats, especially in western and central regions, meet this threshold, others remain under-studied.<\/p>\n \u201cWe built a model that allowed us the flexibility to use both the camera trap data as well as the genetics data,\u201d said wildlife biologist Shashank Poudel from WWF, adding that the committee found that the end parameters were statistically significant to report.<\/p>\n Poudel said the current estimate is based on data from more than 43% of Nepal\u2019s potential snow leopard habitat with the representation of both protected areas and those outside of protected areas. \u201cThat gives us some confidence that the number is representative,\u201d said Poudel, who emphasized that the population as well as density appears to increase along an east-west gradient in the country with most individuals concentrated in the Annapurna range and westward of it.<\/p>\n The western habitat, especially beyond the Annapurnas, is home to the trans-Himalayan region \u2014 land to the north of the Himalayan range \u2014 considered a prime habitat for snow leopards and their prey, the blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur).<\/p>\n That said, researchers are cautious not to treat 397 as a final count. Poudel said that the committee came up with a range of 331\u2013476 as a more accurate measure. \u201cBut, also within the range, the maximum likelihood revolves around 397,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n \u201cThis number is grounded in the best available science,\u201d said researcher Rinzin Phunsok Lama from Third Pole Conservancy. \u201cBut it\u2019s still an educated guess. Snow leopards are too elusive, their landscapes too vast, and our tools too limited for full certainty.\u201d<\/p>\n With this milestone, Nepal turns a corner in snow leopard conservation, but gaps remain, said wildlife biologist Kanchan Thapa from WWF. Areas such as Dhorpatan, Dhaulagiri and Api-Nampa still lack detailed population data.<\/p>\n Future efforts may involve more expansive surveys, potentially nation-wide if logistical and financial support can be secured, said Gurung.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, the new estimate has been submitted to PAWS for peer review, a step conservationists say will add credibility and encourage further refinement. The report will also be made public soon.<\/p>\n The consolidated estimate comes a few months after Nepal\u2019s government rolled out its new $14.24 million snow leopard conservation plan for 2024-30, promising to come up with a national population figure under PAWS guidelines.<\/p>\n