The merlin, Britain\u2019s smallest bird of prey, is one of more than 200 species that will become extinct in the UK if action is not taken to curb emissions and unsustainable land use, a study has claimed.<\/p>\n
According to the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH), there is a 20-year window in which decisions on climate and land use will determine the fate of dozens of Britain\u2019s native species.<\/p>\n
By 2050, the British isles, already one of the most nature-depleted regions in the world, faces an ecological \u201cpoint of no return\u201d, they said.<\/p>\n
\u201cOur results show that the next 20 years will be decisive,\u201d said Dr Rob Cooke, a senior ecologist at UKCEH and the lead author on the study, published\u00a0in the journal Nature Communications. \u201cThe choices we make now will set Britain on a path either towards accelerating biodiversity loss or towards nature recovery.\u201d<\/p>\n
Cooke and his colleagues modelled six plausible future scenarios involving different levels of greenhouse gas emissions and varying land management practices. Better-case scenarios involved strong action on emissions, sustainable land management, reduced meat and dairy consumption, and an overall societal shift towards valuing the environment.<\/p>\n
The worst-case scenario involved environmentally damaging agricultural and urban intensification, and greenhouse gas emissions putting the world on course for 4C of global heating above preindustrial levels.<\/p>\n
In such a scenario, 196 species of plant, 31 birds and seven butterflies would eventually become extinct in Britain \u2013 losses at more than three times the historical extinction rate. Many areas of the country would lose up to 20% of their existing local species.<\/p>\n
Cooke added: \u201cSome species that have been part of our landscapes for centuries are now at risk of being lost, such as the merlin, the UK\u2019s smallest bird of prey, mountain ringlet and large heath butterflies, as well as plants such as burnt orchid, grass-of-Parnassus and Alpine gentian.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis will negatively affect local habitats and a range of ecological functions, from soil health and nutrient cycling to pollination and food production, with knock-on effects for wildlife and people.\u201d<\/p>\n
Even under milder warming scenarios there would still be huge upheaval for biodiversity in Britain, with the impacts of global heating and habitat destruction so far likely to mean it is too late to save many species.<\/p>\n
But, for others, there is still hope. The research estimated that 69 fewer species could become extinct, compared with the worst-case scenario, if society adopted more sustainable climate and land use policies.<\/p>\n